Monthly Modulations of ENSO Teleconnections: Implications for Potential Predictability in North America

Abstract

AbstractUsing a high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model simulation of unprecedented ensemble size, we examine potential predictability of monthly anomalies under El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forcing and back-ground internal variability. This study reveals the pronounced month-to-month evolution of both the ENSO forcing signal and internal variability. Internal variance in upper-level geopotential height decreases (∼ 10%) over the North Pacific during El Niño as the westerly jet extends eastward, allowing forced signals to account for a greater fraction of the total variability, and leading to increased potential predictability. We identify February and March of El Niño years as the most predictable months using a signal-to-noise analysis. In contrast, December, a month typically included in teleconnection studies, shows little-to-no potential predictability. We show that the seasonal evolution of SST forcing and variability leads to significant signal-to-noise relationships that can be directly linked to both upper-level and surface variable predictability for a given month. The stark changes in forced response, internal variability, and thus signal-to-noise across an ENSO season indicate that subseasonal fields should be used to diagnose potential predictability over North America associated with ENSO teleconnections. Using surface air temperature and precipitation as examples, this study provides motivation to pursue ‘windows of forecast opportunity’, in which statistical skill can be developed, tested, and leveraged to determine times and regions in which this skill may be elevated.