The Leading Modes of Northern Eurasian Winter Snowfall Variability and the Potential Influencing Factors

Abstract

Abstract This study investigates the dominant modes of the interannual variability of the northern Eurasian winter snowfall during 1982–2020 and explores their potential influencing factors and the associated physical processes. The first and second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes feature coherent snowfall anomalies over the high latitudes of Eurasia and western Siberia, respectively. Further analyses indicate that the anomalous atmospheric circulations play a major role in forming the snowfall variability, which could be further attributed to the influences of the atmospheric teleconnection patterns and Arctic sea ice variations. Specifically, the anomalous circulations related to the first EOF mode are mainly contributed by the effects of the teleconnections of the Polar–Eurasian and Scandinavian patterns. The formation of the second EOF mode has a close connection with the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Eurasian pattern. In addition, the sea ice variations over Baffin Bay exert a considerable influence on the snowfall anomalies related to the second EOF mode by exciting a wave train–like anomalous circulation. This effect is further verified by a numerical simulation. An empirical statistical model based on the above influencing factors can well explain the temporal evolutions of the two dominant modes, verifying the important value of our results to improve the understanding of interannual variability of northern Eurasian winter snowfall.