Reduction in Precipitation Seasonality in China from 1960 to 2018

Abstract

AbstractChanges in precipitation seasonality or the distribution of precipitation have important impacts on hydrological extremes (e.g., floods or droughts). Precipitation extremes have been widely reported to increase with global warming; however, the variability and mechanism of precipitation seasonality have not been well quantified in China. Here, we explore the multiscale variability in precipitation seasonality from 1960 to 2018 in China. A seasonality index of precipitation is defined to quantify the precipitation seasonality with a lower value indicating a more even distribution throughout a year. The seasonality index increases from southeastern to northwestern China, with a decrease in the annual mean precipitation, a later timing of the wet season, and a shorter wet season duration. The seasonality index decreases from 1960 to 2018 in China, accompanied by the increasing duration of wet season, especially in northern climate-sensitive basins, such as the Northwest River, Hai River, and Songliao River basins. In the Northwest River basin, for example, the observed significant decrease in the seasonality index (~0.02 decade−1) from 1960 to 2018 is consistent with a significant decrease in the ratio of annual maximum 10-day precipitation to annual precipitation, which is confirmed by their significant positive correlation (R = 0.72; p = 0). El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dominates interannual fluctuations and spatial patterns of precipitation seasonality in China. In El Niño years, the precipitation seasonality index decreases across China except for the Yangtze River basin, with broad increases in annual precipitation.