The Time Scales of Climate Responses to Carbon Dioxide and Aerosols
Author:
Stjern Camilla W.1ORCID, Forster Piers M.2, Jia Hailing3, Jouan Caroline1, Kasoar Matthew R.4, Myhre Gunnar1, Olivié Dirk5, Quaas Johannes3, Samset BjØrn H.1, Sand Maria1, Takemura Toshihiro6, Voulgarakis Apostolos67, Wells Christopher D.24
Affiliation:
1. a CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway 2. b University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom 3. c Universität Leipzig, Leipzig, Germany 4. d Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom 5. e Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway 6. f Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan 7. g Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece
Abstract
Abstract
The climate system responds to changes in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases or aerosols through rapid processes, triggered within hours and days, and through slower processes, where the full response may only be seen after centuries. In this paper, we aim to elucidate the mechanisms operating on time scales of hours to years to better understand the response of key climate quantities such as energy fluxes, temperature, and precipitation after a sudden increase in either carbon dioxide (CO2), black carbon (BC), or sulfate (SO4) aerosols. The results are based on idealized simulations from six global climate models. We find that the effect of changing ocean temperatures kicks in after a couple of months. Rapid precipitation reductions start occurring instantly and are established after just a few days. For BC, they constitute most of the equilibrium response. For CO2 and SO4, the magnitude of the precipitation response gradually increases as surface warming/cooling evolves, and for CO2, the sign of the response changes from negative to positive after 2 years. Rapid cloud adjustments are typically established within the first 24 h, and while the magnitude of cloud feedbacks for CO2 and SO4 increases over time, the geographical pattern of the equilibrium cloud change is present already after the first year. While there are model differences, our work underscores the overall similarity of the major time-varying processes and responses simulated by current global models and hence the robustness of key features of simulated responses to historical and future anthropogenic forcing.
Significance Statement
How does the climate system respond to a change in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases or aerosols? Some processes are rapid, responding within hours and days. Others are slow, and the full response to a forcing of the climate may only be seen after centuries. In this paper, we use six global climate models to investigate the time scales of climate responses to carbon dioxide, black carbon, and sulfate, focusing on key climate quantities, such as temperature, precipitation, and clouds. While there are ample model differences, our work underscores the overall similarity of the major time-varying processes and responses simulated by current global models and hence the robustness of key features of simulated responses to historical and future anthropogenic forcing.
Funder
Horizon 2020 Framework Programme Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft Norges Forskningsråd Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency Japan Society for the Promotion of Science
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Subject
Atmospheric Science
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