Interannual Variability of the Wintertime Asian–Bering–North American Teleconnection Linked to Eurasian Snow Cover and Maritime Continent Sea Surface Temperature

Abstract

Abstract Recent studies propose that the Asian–Bering–North American (ABNA) teleconnection is a distinct atmospheric pattern that is related to Eurasian and North American winter climate besides the Pacific–North America (PNA) pattern, while its origin remains elusive. This study investigates the interannual variability of the ABNA during the past 42 winters (1979–2020) and the associated prior surface boundary forcings. The ABNA explains coherent surface air temperature changes in northern Asia, eastern Siberia–Alaska, and eastern North America, even after removing the impacts of the PNA, the Arctic Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the North Pacific Oscillation. Surface boundary conditions linked to the ABNA could be traced back to a Eurasian snow cover dipole pattern (ESCDP) and a Maritime Continent sea surface temperature anomaly (MCSST) in November. The ESCDP leads to a displacement of the Arctic stratospheric polar vortex via troposphere–stratosphere coupling. The anomalous polar vortex propagates downward in the following winter and generates the tropospheric ABNA pattern. The MCSST induces a diabatic heating anomaly, which is associated with a tropical western Pacific precipitation anomaly (TWPP) in winter. The TWPP excites a poleward Rossby wave train that propagates across the North Pacific and directly strengthens the ABNA. The above physical processes can be well reproduced by a linear baroclinic model (LBM). Based on the ESCDP and MCSST predictors, an empirical model is established and shows a promising prediction skill of the ABNA during the hindcast period. This can provide a useful strategy for seasonal prediction of winter climate in the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Significance Statement Extreme cold events have influenced both Asian and North American continents during the past decades, causing huge socioeconomic impacts. The Asian–Bering–North American teleconnection is found to be responsible for coherent changes of winter climate in these two continents besides the Pacific–North America pattern. Our results indicate that Eurasian snow cover and the Maritime Continent sea surface temperature are important sources of predictability for the Asian–Bering–North American teleconnection, and can be used to predict coherent and cross-continent variations of winter surface air temperature. We propose that the Asian–Bering–North American teleconnection and these two predictors should be included in operational monitoring and prediction systems, helping to improve the prediction skill of winter climate in the Northern Hemisphere continents.