Different Responses of Central Asian Precipitation to Strong and Weak El Niño Events

Abstract

Abstract The present study investigated impacts of strong and weak El Niño events on central Asian precipitation variability from El Niño developing years to decaying years. It is found that strong El Niño events persistently enhance central Asian precipitation from the mature winter to decaying summer. Large warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific induce anomalous upper-level divergence and updraft over central Asia through large-scale convergence and divergence in the mature winter and decaying spring. Meanwhile, the associated wind anomalies induce anomalous eastward and northeastward moisture flux from the North Atlantic and the Arabian Sea to central Asia. Both anomalous ascent and moisture flux convergence favor above-normal precipitation over central Asia in the mature winter and decaying spring. The El Niño events induced central Asian precipitation anomalies that are extended to the decaying summer due to the role of soil moisture. Increased rainfall in winter and spring enhances soil moisture in the following summer, which in turn contributes to more precipitation in summer through modulating regional evaporation. During weak El Niño events, significant wet anomalies are only seen in the developing autumn, which result from anomalous southeastward moisture flux from the Arctic Ocean, and the abnormal signals are weak in the other seasons. The different responses of central Asian precipitation to strong and weak El Niño events may be attributed to the difference in intensity of tropical SST anomalies between the two types of events.