Summertime Subtropical Stationary Waves in the Northern Hemisphere: Variability, Forcing Mechanisms, and Impacts on Tropical Cyclone Activity

Abstract

Abstract The interannual variability of summertime subtropical stationary waves, the forcing mechanisms, and their connections to regional tropical cyclone (TC) variability are investigated in this study. Two indices are identified to characterize the interannual variability of subtropical stationary waves: the longitudinal displacement of the zonal wavenumber-1 component (WN1) and the intensity change of the zonal wavenumber-2 component (WN2). These two indices are strongly anticorrelated and offer simple metrics to depict the interannual variability of subtropical stationary waves. Furthermore, the longitudinal displacement of the WN1 is significantly correlated with the variability of TC activity over the North Pacific and North Atlantic, and its influences on regional TC activity can be explained by variations in vertical wind shear, tropospheric humidity, and the frequency of Rossby wave breaking. The subtropical stationary waves are strongly related to precipitation anomalies over different oceanic regions, implying the possible impacts of low-frequency climate modes. Semi-idealized experiments using the Community Earth System Model version 2 (CESM2) show that the longitude of the WN1 is strongly modulated by ENSO, as well as SST anomalies over the Atlantic main development region and the central North Pacific. Further diagnosis using a baroclinic stationary wave model demonstrates the dominant role of diabatic heating in driving the interannual variability of stationary waves and confirms the impacts of different air–sea coupled modes on subtropical stationary waves. Overall, subtropical stationary waves provide a unified framework to understand the impacts of various forcing agents, such as ENSO, the Atlantic meridional mode, and extratropical Rossby wave breaking, on TC activity over the North Atlantic and North Pacific.