Evaluation of Soil Moisture in the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System, Version 2.1 (CanSIPSv2.1)

Author:

Sospedra-Alfonso Reinel1ORCID,Merryfield William J.1,Kharin Viatsheslav V.1,Lee Woo-Sung1,Lin Hai2,Diro Gulilat T.3,Muncaster Ryan2

Affiliation:

1. a Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, Canada

2. b Recherche en Prévision Numérique Atmosphérique, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada

3. c Canadian Meteorological and Environmental Prediction Center, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada

Abstract

Abstract We evaluate the soil moisture hindcasts and the reconstruction runs giving the hindcasts initial conditions in version 2.1 of the Canadian Seasonal to Interannual Prediction System (CanSIPSv2.1). Different strategies are used to initialize the hindcasts for the two CanSIPSv2.1 models, CanCM4i and the coupled Global Environmental Multiscale, version 5.1, (GEM5)–NEMO model (GEM5-NEMO), with contrasting impacts on the soil moisture initial conditions and forecast performance. Forecast correlation skill is decomposed into contributions from persistence of the initial anomalies and contributions not linked to persistence, with performance largely driven by the accuracy of the initial conditions in regions of strong persistence. Seasonal soil moisture correlation skill is significant for several months into the hindcasts depending on initial and target months, with contributions not linked to persistence becoming more notable at longer lead times. For the first 2–4 months, the quality of CanSIPSv2.1 ensemble mean forecasts tends to be higher on average during summer and fall and is comparable to that of the best performing model, whereas CanSIPSv2.1 outperforms the single models during spring and winter. For longer lead times, remote climate influences from the Pacific Ocean are notable and contribute to predictable soil moisture variability in teleconnected regions.

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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