Impact of Model Resolution and Initial/Boundary Conditions in Forecasting Low-Level Atmospheric Fields over the Incheon International Airport

Abstract

Abstract This study investigates the impact of initial conditions/boundary conditions (ICs/BCs) and horizontal resolutions on forecast for average weather conditions, focusing on low-level weather variables such as 2-m temperature (T2m), 2-m water vapor mixing ratio (Q2m), and 10-m wind speed (WS10). A Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is used for regional mesoscale model simulations and large-eddy simulations (LESs). The 6-h-interval forecast fields generated by the Global Forecast System of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction and the Korean Integrated Model of the Korea Meteorological Administration are utilized as ICs/BCs for the regional models. Numerical experiments are performed for 24 h starting at 0000 UTC on each day in April 2021 when the average monthly wind speed was strongest during 10 years (2011–20). A comparison of model simulations with observations obtained around the Yeongjong Island, where Incheon International Airport is situated, shows that the regional models capture the time series of T2m, Q2m, and WS10 more effectively than the global model forecasts. Moreover, the LES experiments with a 100-m horizontal grid spacing simulate higher Q2m and lower WS10 during the daytime compared to the 1-km WRF. This results in a deterioration of their time-series correlation with the observations. Meanwhile, the 100-m LES forecasts time series of T2m over ocean stations and Q2m over land stations, as well as probability density functions of low-level weather variables, more accurately than that of the 1-km WRF. Our study also emphasizes the need for caution when comparing high-resolution model results with observation values at specific stations due to the high spatial variability in low-level meteorological fields.