Approaches to Understanding Decadal and Long-Term Shifts in Observed Precipitation Distributions in Victoria, Australia

Abstract

Abstract Over the past century, precipitation totals in Australia’s southeastern state of Victoria have shown multidecadal variability without clear trends. This has impacted agriculture, water security, ecosystem services, and flood hazards. Hydrological and meteorological evidence suggests that Victorian precipitation regimes have changed since the beginning of the Millennium Drought in 1997. Until now, Victorian precipitation intensity distributions have not been assessed in detail. We assess the time-varying aspect of observed precipitation intensity distributions by identifying temporal shifts in Victorian precipitation and using those different epochs to assess multidecadal changes in precipitation characteristics. We used 788 manual rain gauges and 49 automatic weather stations to analyze subdaily-to-multiday precipitation distributions from 1900 to 2020 for three Victorian regions and four seasons. Distributions are significantly different for the three epochs (1900–45, 1946–96, and 1997–2020). We summarized precipitation distributions by categorizing precipitation intensities, calculating histograms, and fitting gamma distributions. This study provides evidence that Victorian precipitation distributions have shifted over decades and that distributions depend on regional and seasonal differences. Recent precipitation declines are mostly due to decreasing light and moderate precipitation, despite increasing heavy precipitation. Heavy precipitation has shown a tendency to increase in frequency since 1997. Increases were greatest for 6-h springtime and summertime precipitation in northern Victoria and wintertime precipitation in southern and eastern Victoria. Observed precipitation distributions show changes that are consistent with climate projections. To better understand processes driving observed and projected changes to precipitation distributions globally, interdecadal shifts, seasonal variations, and regional climates need to be considered. Significance Statement Our research investigated how different rainfall intensities have contributed to changing rainfall totals over the last century in Victoria, Australia. This is important because different rainfall intensities have various impacts on farms, rivers, catchments, and infrastructure. In Victoria, we found three multidecade periods with different average rainfall intensity distributions. Early-twentieth-century rainfall is close to the observed average, 1946–96 was very wet, and 1997–2020 was drier. Recent years were drier because of fewer light and moderate rainfall events. Changes in heavy rainfall depend on the season and subregional factors. This may indicate that weather processes have changed. Decreasing light-to-moderate rainfall intensities will affect stakeholders by decreasing soil moisture, runoff, and streamflow.