Precipitation Nowcasting with Three-Dimensional Space–Time Extrapolation of Dense and Frequent Phased-Array Weather Radar Observations

Abstract

Abstract The phased-array weather radar (PAWR) is a new-generation weather radar that can make a 100-m-resolution three-dimensional (3D) volume scan every 30 s for 100 vertical levels, producing ~100 times more data than the conventional parabolic-antenna radar with a volume scan typically made every 5 min for 15 scan levels. This study takes advantage of orders of magnitude more rapid and dense observations by PAWR and explores high-precision nowcasting of 3D evolution at 1–10-km scales up to several minutes, which are compared with conventional horizontal two-dimensional (2D) nowcasting typically at O(100) km scales up to 1–6 h. A new 3D precipitation extrapolation system was designed to enhance a conventional algorithm for dense and rapid PAWR volume scans. Experiments show that the 3D extrapolation successfully captured vertical motions of convective precipitation cores and outperformed 2D nowcasting with both simulated and real PAWR data.