Correlation between the Onset of the East Asian Subtropical Summer Monsoon and the Eastward Propagation of the Madden–Julian Oscillation

Abstract

Abstract Using the daily outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), the pentad Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP), and the 6-h Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dataset from 1979 to 2010, a composite analysis along with space–time wave filtering is performed to examine the linkage between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the onset of the East Asian subtropical summer monsoon (EASSM) (over 20°–30°N, 110°–120°E). The onset of the EASSM is shown to be best characterized by the reversal of the mean meridional wind shear related to the rapid reestablishment of the South Asian high (SAH) over the southern Indochinese Peninsula in the upper troposphere. The mean date of EASMM onset is near the end of April, which is about a month earlier than the typical onset of the East Asian summer monsoon. Further analysis indicates that the onset of the EASSM and the reestablishment of SAH are often associated with the arrival of the wet phase of the tropical MJO over the central and eastern Indian Ocean.