Testing Stochastic and Perturbed Parameter Methods in an Experimental 1-km Warn-on-Forecast System Using NSSL’s Phased-Array Radar Observations

Abstract

Abstract The success of the National Severe Storms Laboratory’s (NSSL) experimental Warn-on-Forecast System (WoFS) to provide useful probabilistic guidance of severe and hazardous weather is mostly due to the frequent assimilation of observations, especially radar observations. Phased-array radar (PAR) technology, which is a potential candidate to replace the current U.S. operational radar network, would allow for even more rapid assimilation of radar observations by providing full-volumetric scans of the atmosphere every ∼1 min. Based on previous studies, more frequent PAR data assimilation can lead to improved forecasts, but it can also lead to ensemble underdispersion and suboptimal observation assimilation. The use of stochastic and perturbed parameter methods to increase ensemble spread is a potential solution to this problem. In this study, four stochastic and perturbed parameter methods are assessed using a 1-km-scale version of the WoFS and include the stochastic kinetic energy backscatter (SKEB) scheme, the physically based stochastic perturbation (PSP) scheme, a fixed perturbed parameters (FPP) method, and a novel surface-model scheme blending (SMSB) method. Using NSSL PAR observations from the 9 May 2016 tornado outbreak, experiments are conducted to assess the impact of the methods individually, in different combinations, and with different cycling intervals. The results from these experiments reveal the potential benefits of stochastic and perturbed parameter methods for future versions of the WoFS. Stochastic and perturbed parameter methods can lead to more skillful forecasts during periods of storm development. Moreover, a combination of multiple methods can result in more skillful forecasts than using a single method. Significance Statement Phased-array radar technology allows for more frequent assimilation of radar observations into ensemble forecast systems like the experimental Warn-on-Forecast System. However, more frequent radar data assimilation can eventually cause issues for prediction systems due to the lack of ensemble spread. Thus, the purpose of this study is to explore the use of four stochastic and perturbed parameter methods in a next-generation Warn-on-Forecast System to generate ensemble spread and help prevent the issues from frequent radar data assimilation. Results from this study indicate the stochastic and perturbed parameter methods can improve forecasts of storms, especially during storm development.