Deep Learning of a 200-Member Ensemble with a Limited Historical Training to Improve the Prediction of Extreme Precipitation Events

Abstract

Abstract This study introduces a deep learning (DL) scheme to generate reliable and skillful probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts (PQPFs) in a postprocessing framework. Enhanced machine learning model architecture and training mechanisms are proposed to improve the reliability and skill of PQPFs while permitting computationally efficient model fitting using a short training dataset. The methodology is applied to postprocessing of 24-h accumulated PQPFs from an ensemble forecast system recently introduced by the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E) and for lead times from 1 to 6 days. The ensemble system was designed based on a high-resolution version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model, named West-WRF, to produce a 200-member ensemble in near–real time (NRT) over the western United States during the boreal cool seasons to support Forecast-Informdayed Reservoir Operations (FIRO) and studies of prediction of heavy-to-extreme events. Postprocessed PQPFs are compared with those from the raw West-WRF ensemble, the operational Global Ensemble Forecast System version 12 (GEFSv12), and the ensemble from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). As an additional baseline, we provide PQPF verification metrics from a recently developed neural network postprocessing scheme. The results demonstrate that the skill of postprocessed forecasts significantly outperforms PQPFs and deterministic forecasts from raw ensembles and the recently developed algorithm. The resulting PQPFs broadly improve upon the reliability and skill of baselines in predicting heavy-to-extreme precipitation (e.g., >75 mm) across all lead times while maintaining the spatial structure of the high-resolution raw ensemble.