Cloud and Water Vapor Feedbacks in a Vertical Energy-Balance Model with Maximum Entropy Production

Abstract

Abstract A vertically one-dimensional model is developed with cloud fraction constrained by the maximum entropy production (MEP) principle. The model reasonably reproduces the global mean climate with its surface temperature, radiation and heat fluxes, cloud fraction, and lapse rate. The maximum convection hypothesis in Paltridge’s models is related to the MEP principle, and the MEP state of climate is approximately equivalent to that with the maximum lapse rate. The sensitivity investigation about the model assumptions and the prescribed parameters show that the model is considerably robust in simulating the global mean climate. With the MEP constraint, the feedbacks of cloud and water vapor to external forcings, such as changes of CO2 concentration, solar incidence, and surface albedo, are evaluated. While water vapor always behaves as a strong positive feedback, cloud feedbacks to the different forcings are different, in both magnitude and sign. The modeled feedback of cloud fraction to the forcing resulting from surface albedo variation seems in good agreement with the observed seasonal variation of the global cloud fraction.