Process-Oriented Evaluation of Climate and Weather Forecasting Models

Author:

Maloney Eric D.1,Gettelman Andrew2,Ming Yi3,Neelin J. David4,Barrie Daniel5,Mariotti Annarita5,Chen C.-C.2,Coleman Danielle R. B.2,Kuo Yi-Hung4,Singh Bohar1,Annamalai H.6,Berg Alexis7,Booth James F.8,Camargo Suzana J.9,Dai Aiguo10,Gonzalez Alex11,Hafner Jan6,Jiang Xianan11,Jing Xianwen12,Kim Daehyun13,Kumar Arun14,Moon Yumin13,Naud Catherine M.15,Sobel Adam H.16,Suzuki Kentaroh12,Wang Fuchang17,Wang Junhong10,Wing Allison A.18,Xu Xiaobiao19,Zhao Ming3

Affiliation:

1. Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

2. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado

3. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey

4. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California

5. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Climate Program Office, Silver Spring, Maryland

6. International Pacific Research Center/Department of Oceanography, University of Hawai‘i at Mānoa, Honolulu, Hawaii

7. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey

8. City College of the City University of New York, New York, New York

9. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York

10. Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York

11. Joint Institute for Regional Earth System Science and Engineering, University of California, Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California

12. Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Kashiwa, Japan

13. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

14. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Climate Prediction Center, College Park, Maryland

15. Columbia University, New York, New York

16. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, and Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, New York

17. Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, and Institute of Oceanography, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China

18. Department of Earth, Ocean, and Atmospheric Science, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

19. Center for Ocean-Atmospheric Prediction Studies, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida

Abstract

AbstractRealistic climate and weather prediction models are necessary to produce confidence in projections of future climate over many decades and predictions for days to seasons. These models must be physically justified and validated for multiple weather and climate processes. A key opportunity to accelerate model improvement is greater incorporation of process-oriented diagnostics (PODs) into standard packages that can be applied during the model development process, allowing the application of diagnostics to be repeatable across multiple model versions and used as a benchmark for model improvement. A POD characterizes a specific physical process or emergent behavior that is related to the ability to simulate an observed phenomenon. This paper describes the outcomes of activities by the Model Diagnostics Task Force (MDTF) under the NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO) Modeling, Analysis, Predictions and Projections (MAPP) program to promote development of PODs and their application to climate and weather prediction models. MDTF and modeling center perspectives on the need for expanded process-oriented diagnosis of models are presented. Multiple PODs developed by the MDTF are summarized, and an open-source software framework developed by the MDTF to aid application of PODs to centers’ model development is presented in the context of other relevant community activities. The paper closes by discussing paths forward for the MDTF effort and for community process-oriented diagnosis.

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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