Is the Recent Increasing Trend of Rainfall over Northeast Brazil Related to Sub-Saharan Drought?

Author:

Rao V. Brahmananda1,Giarolla Emanuel1,Kayano Mary T.1,Franchito Sergio H.1

Affiliation:

1. Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos, CPTEC Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, São José dos Campos, Sao Paolo, Brazil

Abstract

Abstract In recent years, there has been an increase in rainfall over northeast Brazil (Nordeste), while over the sub-Saharan region there has been a drought. The correlation coefficients between the 11-yr running means of the rainfall series over the two regions are significant (at the 95% confidence level by a two-sided t test), suggesting that both trends are related. The rainfall variations over the two regions are connected to the position of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) over the Atlantic. A more southward (northward) position of the ITCZ is favorable for higher than normal rainfall over Nordeste (sub-Sahara). The correlation coefficient between the position of the ITCZ over the Atlantic and the rainfall over Nordeste (sub-Sahara) is negative (positive) and highly significant, reaching values over 0.9. Thus, this study suggests that a more southward than normal location of the ITCZ in the Atlantic may be the cause for the recent increasing (decreasing) trend of rainfall over Nordeste (sub-Sahara).

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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