Predictability of Major Stratospheric Sudden Warmings of the Vortex Split Type: Case Study of the 2002 Southern Event and the 2009 and 1989 Northern Events

Abstract

Abstract This study investigates the predictability of three major stratospheric sudden warmings (MSSWs) of the vortex split type: the Southern Hemisphere case in September 2002 and two Northern Hemisphere cases in January 2009 and February 1989. The author examines changes in the predictability of the MSSWs with lead time, as well as the connection of the predictability to lower-atmospheric features for pre- and post-MSSW periods. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)’s 1-month ensemble hindcast (HC) experiment data are compared to the Japanese 25-year Reanalysis Project (JRA-25)/JMA Climate Data Assimilation System (JCDAS) data. For the pre-MSSW period, a strong predictability connection is observed among all three cases. Unsuccessful predictions of the MSSWs are characterized by an underestimation (or lack) of the enhanced wave activity in the lower stratosphere, which is further related to the strength and persistence of the upper-tropospheric ridge and trough. The mean zonal wind profile in the upper troposphere is also important for the 2009 case. These results confirm the role of tropospheric wave forcing of the MSSWs in the context of predictability. The characteristic time scale for successful predictions is approximately 10 days–2 weeks, which roughly corresponds to the time scale of the tropospheric wave forcing. No ensemble member successfully predicts the MSSWs with lead times longer than the time scale. The predictability connection between the stratospheric and tropospheric anomalies is more subtle for the post-MSSW period. In particular, the HC group initialized about 1 week before the MSSWs tends to reproduce the evolution of the stratosphere after the MSSWs well but not that of the troposphere in some cases.