Implications of Both Statistical Equilibrium and Global Warming Simulations with CCSM3. Part I: On the Decadal Variability in the North Pacific Basin

Abstract

Abstract In the low-resolution version of the Community Climate System Model, version 3 (CCSM3), the modeled North Pacific decadal variability is demonstrated to be independent of the epoch for which a statistically steady control simulation is constructed, either preindustrial or modern; however, it is demonstrated to be significantly affected by the different global warming scenarios investigated. In the control simulations, the North Pacific basin is shown to be dominated by sea surface temperature (SST) variability with a time scale of approximately 20 yr. This mode of variability is in close accord with the observed characteristics of the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). A detailed analysis of the statistical equilibrium runs is performed based on other model variables as well [sea surface salinity (SSS), barotropic circulation, freshwater and heat fluxes, wind stress curl, sea ice, and snow coverage]. These analyses confirm that the underlying mechanism of the PDO involves a basin-scale mode of ocean adjustment to changes of the atmospheric forcing associated with the Aleutian low pressure system. However, they also suggest that the observed sign reversal of the PDO arises from a feedback in the northern part of the basin. In this novel hypothesis, the advection to the Bering Sea of “spice” anomalies formed in the central and western Pacific sets up a typical 10-yr time scale for the triggering of the PDO reversal. In all of the global warming simulations described in this paper, the signal represented by the detrended SST variability in the North Pacific displays significant power at multidecadal frequencies. In these simulations, the natural North Pacific decadal variability, as characterized in the control simulations (the PDO), remains the leading mode of variability only for moderate forcing. If the warming is too strong, then the typical 20-yr time scale of the canonical PDO can no longer be detected, except in terms of SSS variability and only prior to a significant change that occurs in the Bering Strait Throughflow.