The 1976/77 Austral Summer Climate Transition Effects on the Atmospheric Circulation and Climate in Southern South America

Abstract

Abstract Previous works suggest that more El Niño–like conditions can be expected over the South American (SA) climate and atmospheric circulation because of the similarity of the predominately warm conditions in the sea surface temperature (SST) over the central-equatorial Pacific after the 1976/77 summer with those of the SSTs during El Niño events. Here, the summer (October to March) low-level atmospheric circulation over southern SA is studied in order to determine the specific changes that can be related with the global climate transition 1976/77. The rotated principal component analysis is applied to the daily 850-hPa geopotential height fields from the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis I for the periods before and after 1976/77. The second and third principal patterns reveal changes both in the order of explained variances and in some of their spatial features. They can be associated with an expansion of the subtropical South Atlantic anticyclone over SA and lower midlatitude cyclone activity after the 1976/77 summer. The latter is partly associated with the actual tendency toward the positive phase of the southern annular mode. The main patterns can even explain some changes in the observed precipitation over subtropical central-west Argentina as well as for other subtropical regions. Different inhomogeneity tests applied to the atmospheric circulation climatology support the changes. Results suggest that the atmospheric circulation change could be somewhat unique (not observed in the twentieth century) and, thus, it could not be thoroughly ascribed to the El Niño–like variability.