Influences of Urbanization on an Afternoon Heavy Rainfall Event over the Yangtze River Delta Region

Abstract

Abstract An afternoon heavy rainfall event occurred over coastal Nantong, an area of 70–100 km downstream from the Shanghai–Suzhou–Wuxi–Changzhou city belt over the Yangtze River Delta, under the influences of weak southwesterly monsoonal flows and lake/sea breezes on 26 July 2018. An observational analysis shows the emergence of pronounced urban heat island (UHI) effects along the city belt during the late morning hours. A series of nested-grid cloud-permitting model simulations with the finest grid spacing of 1 km are performed to examine the impacts of urbanization on convection initiation (CI) and the subsequent heavy rainfall event. Results reveal the generation of lake breezes and warm anomalies in the planetary boundary layer along the city belt and low-level convergence, thereby inducing upward motion for CI. The southwesterly flows of the monsoonal warm–moist air, enhanced by the UHI effects along the city belt, allow the development of convective cells along the city belt, some of which merge with convective clusters during their downstream propagation, and the ultimate generation of several distinct heavy rainfall centers by local convective clusters over coastal Nantong where atmospheric columns are more moist and potentially unstable under the influences of sea breezes. Sensitivity simulations show small contribution of Nantong’s UHI effects to the heavy rainfall event. The above findings help elucidate how the UHI effects could assist the CI in a weak-gradient environment, and explain why urbanization can contribute to increased downwind mean and extreme precipitation under the influences of favorable regional forcing conditions. Significance Statement The urban heat island (UHI) effects tend to produce more rainfall on its downwind side than that on the other sides, but alone could hardly account for the generation of heavy rainfall. This study examines the influences of the UHI effects associated with a city belt over the Yangtze River Delta on generating an afternoon heavy rainfall event over coastal Nantong that is 70–100 km downwind from the city belt. Results show (i) the downwind advection of the UHI effects; (ii) the initiation of convective storms along the city belt, and their subsequent downstream propagation, leading to the generation of heavy rainfall over Nantong; and (iii) an important role of sea breezes in generating the heavy rainfall event.