Evaluation of Three Genesis Potential Indices for Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Arabian Sea: Two Case Studies Using WRF and ERA5

Abstract

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) generated over the Arabian Sea can cause significant damage to infrastructure, human lives, landfall, and property near inshore and maritime trade route areas. A key to successful prediction of TCs is a skillful prediction of potential cyclogenesis locations. This study focuses on evaluating three genesis potential indices (GPIs) derived from a global reanalysis (ERA5) and dynamically downscaling using a regional model (WRF) for two TC cases: Gonu in 2007 and Kyarr in 2019, selected by analyzing the accumulated cyclone energy trend from the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset over the period of 1981–2019. The two TCs belong to category 4 and above on the Saffir–Simpson scale. To test the sensitivity of downscaling to cumulus parameterizations, two WRF experiments were conducted using the Kain–Fritsch and New Tiedke cumulus schemes, respectively. The calculated genesis locations with help of the three GPIs were compared with IBTrACS. The results show that 1) all indices have reasonable skills in reproducing genesis locations, although their performances differ somewhat; 2) the dynamic downscaling with two WRF experiments added value to the study by comparing two numerical schemes for estimating genesis locations; and 3) WRF with the New Tiedke and Kain–Fritsch schemes showed good skill in reproducing the spatial distribution of the most relevant dynamical parameters. The pattern correlations are well correlated with environmental parameters of untransformed GPI and higher correlations with binary logarithmic transformed GPI. The applicability to other cyclones is also tested (e.g., TC Nilofar in 2014) with encouraging results. This study demonstrates the usefulness of GPIs for forecasting TC genesis in the region. Significance Statement The trend analysis of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) over the Arabian Sea (AS) shows an increase over the period of 1981–2019 with the highest ACE values for 2019. The genesis potential indices (GPI) show strong ability for use as a forecasting tool for tropical cyclone genesis, and hence, are helpful for providing a reference for future studies. WRF experiments were able to reproduce the GPI with slight differences from the observations and ERA5. WRF schemes show good performance in reproducing key meteorological fields. The analysis of the GPI and WRF schemes shows the potential to be implemented for maritime forecasts of the tropical cyclones in the region. This study will be helpful scientifically and strategically with a significant impact on socioeconomic activities in the region.