Average Protein Content and Its Variability in Winter Wheat: A Forecast Model based on Weather Parameters

Abstract

Abstract In this article, the effect of different weather parameters on the mean height and the variability of the protein content in winter wheat is investigated. The analysis is based on the proteins of 148 800 wheat deliveries in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania during 2004–15. From April to July, the forecast model was estimated with the following weather parameters: temperature sum, daily temperature range, precipitation, and sunshine duration. A Just and Pope function was estimated as a random intercept model. In addition to the weather parameters, a dummy variable is integrated into the forecast model to record differences in quality between A and B wheat varieties. The results show that 76.5% of the annual variability of the mean protein content can be explained on the basis of these weather parameters. In contrast, weather variables can only explain a small part of the variance in protein content per se.