Affiliation:
1. NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division, Miami, Florida
Abstract
Abstract
A simple linear discriminant analysis scheme using climatological predictors is derived for the Atlantic basin as a no-skill baseline for operational phase forecasts from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). The model with independent data correctly classifies 80% of the cases at 12 h, and this value decreases to about 45% by 60 h, remaining steady thereafter. Using the same cases, NHC-issued phase predictions were more frequently accurate than the baseline, so their forecasts are said to have skill.
Publisher
American Meteorological Society
Cited by
4 articles.
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