Finescale Assessment of Mobile Home Tornado Vulnerability in the Central and Southeast United States

Abstract

Abstract Research has illustrated that tornado disaster potential and impact severity are controlled by hazard risk and underlying physical and social vulnerabilities. Previous vulnerability studies have suggested that an important driver of disaster consequence is the type of housing affected by tornadic winds. This study employs a Monte Carlo tornado simulation tool; mobile home location information derived from finescale, land-parcel data; and census enumerations of socioeconomic vulnerability factors to assess the tornado impact probability for one of the most wind hazard–susceptible demographics in the United States: mobile home residents. Comparative analyses between Alabama and Kansas are employed to highlight regional (i.e., Southeast vs Great Plains) differences in mobile home tornado risk, exposure, and vulnerability. Tornado impact potential on mobile homes is 4.5 times (350%) greater in Alabama than in Kansas because Alabama, in comparison to Kansas, is represented by 1) a greater number of mobile homes and 2) a more sprawling mobile home distribution. Findings reveal that the Southeast’s mobile home residents are one of the most socioeconomically and demographically marginalized populations in the United States and are more susceptible to tornado impact and death than illustrated in prior research. Policy makers, engineers, and members of integrated warning teams (i.e., National Weather Service, media, emergency managers, and first responders) should use these findings to initiate a dialogue and construct interdisciplinary actions aimed at improving societal and individual resilience before, during, and after hazardous weather events.