Why Are Arctic Linkages to Extreme Weather Still up in the Air?

Abstract

Abstract Shifting weather patterns, particularly increasing extreme events, are observed in populous midlatitudes, and connections to climate change are becoming clearer. The specific roles of rapid Arctic warming and sea ice loss in this story are a topic of intense research and controversy. Instead of converging on answers however, the science seems as unsettled as ever. Many new studies find evidence supporting Arctic–midlatitude linkages, while others report no robust signals. This article presents my interpretation of recent literature to illuminate possible causes of this discrepancy, which include a low signal-to-noise ratio, shortcomings in experiment design, ill-suited metrics of circulation changes, and deficiencies in models used to simulate atmospheric responses to rapid Arctic warming.