Toward Quantifying the Increasing Role of Oceanic Heat in Sea Ice Loss in the New Arctic

Author:

Carmack E.1,Polyakov I.2,Padman L.3,Fer I.4,Hunke E.5,Hutchings J.6,Jackson J.7,Kelley D.8,Kwok R.9,Layton C.8,Melling H.10,Perovich D.11,Persson O.12,Ruddick B.8,Timmermans M.-L.13,Toole J.14,Ross T.8,Vavrus S.15,Winsor P.16

Affiliation:

1. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Sidney, British Columbia, Canada, and College of Natural Science and Mathematics, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska

2. International Arctic Research Center, and College of Natural Science and Mathematics, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska

3. Earth and Space Research, Corvallis, Oregon

4. Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway

5. Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico

6. Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon

7. Hakai Institute, Heriot Bay, British Columbia, Canada

8. Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada

9. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California

10. Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Sidney, British Columbia, Canada

11. Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory, Hanover, New Hampshire

12. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, Colorado

13. Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut

14. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts

15. Center for Climatic Research, University of Wisconsin–Madison, Madison, Wisconsin

16. Institute of Marine Science, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, Alaska

Abstract

Abstract The loss of Arctic sea ice has emerged as a leading signal of global warming. This, together with acknowledged impacts on other components of the Earth system, has led to the term “the new Arctic.” Global coupled climate models predict that ice loss will continue through the twenty-first century, with implications for governance, economics, security, and global weather. A wide range in model projections reflects the complex, highly coupled interactions between the polar atmosphere, ocean, and cryosphere, including teleconnections to lower latitudes. This paper summarizes our present understanding of how heat reaches the ice base from the original sources—inflows of Atlantic and Pacific Water, river discharge, and summer sensible heat and shortwave radiative fluxes at the ocean/ice surface—and speculates on how such processes may change in the new Arctic. The complexity of the coupled Arctic system, and the logistic and technological challenges of working in the Arctic Ocean, require a coordinated interdisciplinary and international program that will not only improve understanding of this critical component of global climate but will also provide opportunities to develop human resources with the skills required to tackle related problems in complex climate systems. We propose a research strategy with components that include 1) improved mapping of the upper- and middepth Arctic Ocean, 2) enhanced quantification of important process, 3) expanded long-term monitoring at key heat-flux locations, and 4) development of numerical capabilities that focus on parameterization of heat-flux mechanisms and their interactions.

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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