Observed Trends in Summertime Precipitation over the Southwestern United States

Author:

Anderson Bruce T.1,Wang Jingyun2,Salvucci Guido1,Gopal Suchi1,Islam Shafiqul3

Affiliation:

1. Department of Geography and Environment, Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts

2. EQECAT/ABSG Consulting, Inc., Oakland, California

3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Tufts University, Medford, Massachusetts

Abstract

Abstract In this paper, the authors evaluate the significance of multidecadal trends in seasonal-mean summertime precipitation and precipitation characteristics over the southwestern United States using stochastic, chain-dependent daily rainfall models. Unlike annual-mean precipitation, trends during the summertime monsoon, covering the period 1931–2000, indicate an overall increase in seasonal precipitation, the number of rainfall events, and the coverage of rainfall events in peripheral regions north of the “core” monsoon area of Arizona and western New Mexico. In addition, there is an increasing trend in intense storm activity and a decreasing trend in extreme dry-spell lengths. Over other regions of the domain, there are no discernible trends found in any of the observed characteristics. These trends are robust to the choice of start dates and, in the case of seasonal-mean precipitation, appear to persist into the current century.

Publisher

American Meteorological Society

Subject

Atmospheric Science

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