Amazon Deforestation and Climate Change in a Coupled Model Simulation

Abstract

Abstract The effects of Amazon deforestation on climate change are investigated using twin numerical experiments of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) with prescribed global sea surface temperature and the same AGCM coupled to an ocean GCM (CGCM) over the global tropics. An ensemble approach is adopted, with 10-member ensemble averages of a control simulation compared with perturbed simulations for three scenarios of Amazon deforestation. The latest 20 yr of simulation from each experiment are analyzed. Local surface warming and rainfall reduction are simulated by both models over the Amazon basin. The coupled model presented a rainfall reduction that is nearly 60% larger compared to its control run than those obtained by the AGCM. The results also indicated that both the fraction of the deforested area and the spatial continuity of the vegetated area might be important for modulating global climate variability and change. Additionally, significant remote atmospheric responses to Amazon deforestation scenarios are detected for the coupled simulations, which revealed global ocean and atmosphere circulation changes conducive to enhanced ocean–atmosphere variability over the Pacific Ocean. This, in turn, is interpreted as a manifestation of enhanced El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity over the Pacific and a positive feedback contributing to the extra rainfall reduction over the Amazon on the coupled simulations.