Crop modelling and remote sensing for yield prediction

Abstract

Methods for the application of crop growth models, remote sensing and their integrative use for yield forecasting and prediction are presented. First, the general principles of crop growth models are explained. When crop simulation models are used on regional scales, uncertainty and spatial variation in model parameters can result in broad bands of simulated yield. Remote sensing can be used to reduce some of this uncertainty. With optical remote sensing, standard relations between the Weighted Difference Vegetation Index and fraction ground cover and LAI were established for a number of crops. The radar backscatter of agricultural crops was found to be largely affected by canopy structure, and, for most crops, no consistent relationships with crop growth indicators were established. Two approaches are described to integrate remote sensing data with crop growth models. In the first one, measures of light interception (ground cover, LAI) estimated from optical remote sensing are used as forcing function in the models. In the second method, crop growth models are extended with remote sensing sub-models to simulate time-series of optical and radar remote sensing signals. These simulated signals are compared to measured signals, and the crop growth model is re-calibrated to match simulated with measured remote sensing data. The developed methods resulted in increased accuracy in the simulation of crop growth and yield of wheat and sugar beet in a number of case-studies.