Association of the 24‐Hour National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale After Mechanical Thrombectomy With Early and Long‐Term Survival

Abstract

Background The National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) obtained 24 hours after ischemic stroke is a good indicator for functional outcome and early mortality, but the correlation with long‐term survival is less clear. We analyzed the correlation of the NIHSS after 24 hours (24h NIHSS) and early clinical neurological development after mechanical thrombectomy with early and long‐term survival as well as its predictive power on survival. Methods We reviewed a prospective observational registry for all patients undergoing mechanical thrombectomy between January 2010 and December 2018. Vital status was extracted from the Swiss Population Registry. Adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) and crude hazard ratios were calculated using Cox regression. To assess predictive power of the 24h NIHSS, different Random Survival Forest models were evaluated. Results We included 957 patients (median follow‐up 1376 days). Patients with lower 24h NIHSS and major early neurological improvement had substantially better survival rates. We observed significantly higher aHR for death in patients with 24h NIHSS 12 to 15 (aHR, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.1–2.89), with 24h NIHSS 16 to 21 (aHR, 2.54, 95% CI, 1.59–4.06), and with 24h NIHSS >21 (aHR, 5.74; 95% CI, 3.47–9.5). The 24h NIHSS showed the best performance predicting mortality (receiver operating characteristic area under the curve at 3 months [0.85±0.034], at 1 year [0.82±0.029], at 2 years [0.82±0.031], and at 5 years [0.83±0.035]), followed by NIHSS change. Conclusions Patients with acute ischemic stroke achieving a low 24h NIHSS or major early neurological improvement after mechanical thrombectomy had markedly lower long‐term mortality. Furthermore, 24h NIHSS had the best predictive power for early and long‐term survival in our machine learning–based prediction.