Prognostic Value of Serial Risk Stratification in Adult and Pediatric Pulmonary Arterial Hypertension: A Systematic Review

Abstract

Background In pulmonary arterial hypertension, it is recommended to base therapeutic decisions on risk stratification. This systematic review aims to report the prognostic value of serial risk stratification in adult and pediatric pulmonary arterial hypertension and to explore the usability of serial risk stratification as treatment target. Methods and Results Electronic databases PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were searched up to January 30, 2023, using terms associated with pulmonary arterial hypertension, pediatric pulmonary hypertension, and risk stratification. Observational studies and clinical trials describing risk stratification at both baseline and follow‐up were included. Sixty five studies were eligible for inclusion, including only 2 studies in a pediatric population. C‐statistic range at baseline was 0.31 to 0.77 and improved to 0.30 to 0.91 at follow‐up. In 53% of patients, risk status changed (42% improved, 12% worsened) over 168 days (interquartile range, 137–327 days; n=22 studies). The average proportion of low‐risk patients increased from 18% at baseline to 36% at a median follow‐up of 244 days (interquartile range, 140–365 days; n=40 studies). In placebo‐controlled drug studies, risk statuses of the intervention groups improved more and worsened less compared with the placebo groups. Furthermore, a low‐risk status, but also an improved risk status, at follow‐up was associated with a better outcome. Similar results were found in the 2 pediatric studies. Conclusions Follow‐up risk stratification has improved prognostic value compared with baseline risk stratification, and change in risk status between baseline and follow‐up corresponded to a change in survival. These data support the use of serial risk stratification as treatment target in pulmonary arterial hypertension.