Association Between Hematoma Volume and Risk of Subsequent Ischemic Stroke: A MISTIE III and ATACH-2 Analysis

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Nontraumatic intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) is independently associated with a long-term increased risk of major arterial ischemic events. While the relationship between ICH location and ischemic risk has been studied, whether hematoma volume influences this risk is poorly understood. METHODS: We pooled individual patient data from the MISTIE III (Minimally Invasive Surgery Plus Alteplase for Intracerebral Hemorrhage Evacuation Phase 3) and the ATACH-2 (Antihypertensive Treatment of Acute Cerebral Hemorrhage-2) trials. The exposure was hematoma volume, treated as a continuous measure in the primary analysis, and dichotomized by the median in the secondary analyses. The outcome was a symptomatic, clinically overt ischemic stroke, adjudicated centrally within each trial. We evaluated the association between hematoma volume and the risk of an ischemic stroke using Cox regression analyses after adjustment for demographics, vascular comorbidities, and ICH characteristics. RESULTS: Of 1470 patients with ICH, the mean age was 61.7 (SD, 12.8) years, and 574 (38.3%) were female. The median hematoma volume was 17.3 mL (interquartile range, 7.2–35.7). During a median follow-up of 107 days (interquartile range, 91–140), a total of 30 ischemic strokes occurred, of which 22 were in patients with a median ICH volume of ≥17.3 mL and a cumulative incidence of 4.6% (95% CI, 3.1–7.1). Among patients with a median ICH volume <17.3 mL, there were 8 ischemic strokes with a cumulative incidence of 3.1% (95% CI, 1.7–6.0). In primary analyses using adjusted Cox regression models, ICH volume was associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 1.02 per mL increase [95% CI, 1.01–1.04]). In secondary analyses, ICH volume of ≥17.3 mL was associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke (hazard ratio, 2.5 [95% CI, 1.1–7.2]), compared with those with an ICH volume <17.3 mL. CONCLUSIONS: In a heterogeneous cohort of patients with ICH, initial hematoma volume was associated with a heightened short-term risk of ischemic stroke.