Deep Learning for Explainable Estimation of Mortality Risk From Myocardial Positron Emission Tomography Images

Abstract

Background: We aim to develop an explainable deep learning (DL) network for the prediction of all-cause mortality directly from positron emission tomography myocardial perfusion imaging flow and perfusion polar map data and evaluate it using prospective testing. Methods: A total of 4735 consecutive patients referred for stress and rest 82 Rb positron emission tomography between 2010 and 2018 were followed up for all-cause mortality for 4.15 (2.24–6.3) years. DL network utilized polar maps of stress and rest perfusion, myocardial blood flow, myocardial flow reserve, and spill-over fraction combined with cardiac volumes, singular indices, and sex. Patients scanned from 2010 to 2016 were used for training and validation. The network was tested in a set of 1135 patients scanned from 2017 to 2018 to simulate prospective clinical implementation. Results: In prospective testing, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for all-cause mortality prediction by DL (0.82 [95% CI, 0.77–0.86]) was higher than ischemia (0.60 [95% CI, 0.54–0.66]; P <0.001), myocardial flow reserve (0.70 [95% CI, 0.64–0.76], P <0.001) or a comprehensive logistic regression model (0.75 [95% CI, 0.69–0.80], P <0.05). The highest quartile of patients by DL had an annual all-cause mortality rate of 11.87% and had a 16.8 ([95% CI, 6.12%–46.3%]; P <0.001)-fold increase in the risk of death compared with the lowest quartile patients. DL showed a 21.6% overall reclassification improvement as compared with established measures of ischemia. Conclusions: The DL model trained directly on polar maps allows improved patient risk stratification in comparison with established methods for positron emission tomography flow or perfusion assessments.