A New Tool for the Risk Stratification of Patients With Complex Coronary Artery Disease

Abstract

Background— Presently, no effective risk model exists to predict long-term mortality or other major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) in those patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). This study aimed to assess whether the Clinical SYNTAX Score (CSS) calculated by multiplying the SYNTAX Score to a modified ACEF score (age/ejection fraction +1 for each 10 mL the creatinine clearance <60 mL/min per 1.73 m 2 ) would improve the ability of either score to predict mortality and MACCE. Methods and Results— The CSS was calculated in 512 patients enrolled in the ARTS-II study who had serum creatinine levels, ejection fraction, and body weight recorded at baseline. Clinical outcomes in terms of MACCE and mortality at 1- and 5-year follow-up were stratified according to CSS tertiles: CSS LOW ≤15.6 (n=170), 15.6<CSS MID ≤27.5 (n=171), and CSS HIGH >27.5 (n=171). At 1-year follow-up, rates of repeat revascularization and MACCE were significantly higher in the highest tertile group. At 5-year follow-up, CSS HIGH had a comparable rate of myocardial infarction, a trend toward a significantly higher rate of death, and significantly higher rates of repeat revascularization and overall MACCE compared with patients in the lower 2 tertiles. The respective C-statistics for the CSS, SYNTAX Score, and ACEF score for 5-year mortality were 0.69, 0.62, and 0.65 and for 5-year MACCE were 0.62, 0.59, and 0.57. Conclusions— An improvement in the ability of the SYNTAX Score to predict MACCE and mortality can be achieved by combining the SYNTAX Score with a simple clinical risk score incorporating age, ejection fraction, and creatinine clearance to produce the Clinical SYNTAX score. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00235170.