Prognostic Value of a Multi-mRNA Signature for 1-Year All-Cause Death in Hospitalized Patients With Heart Failure With a Preserved Ejection Fraction

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is a major global public health problem, while effective risk stratification tools are still lacking. We sought to construct a multi-mRNA signature to predict 1-year all-cause death. METHODS: We selected 30 patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction who died during 1-year follow-up and 30 who survived in the discovery set. One hundred seventy-one and 120 patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction were randomly selected as a test set and a validation set, respectively. We performed mRNA microarrays in all patients. RESULTS: We constructed a 5-mRNA signature for predicting 1-year all-cause death. The scores of the 5-mRNA signature were significantly associated with the 1-year risk of all-cause death in both the test set (hazard ratio, 2.72 [95% CI, 1.98–3.74]; P <0.001) and the validation set (hazard ratio, 3.95 [95% CI, 2.40–6.48]; P <0.001). Compared with a reference model, which included sex, ASCEND-HF (Acute Study of Clinical Effectiveness of Nesiritide in Decompensated Heart Failure) score, history of HF and NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), the 5-mRNA signature had a better discrimination capability, with an increased area under the curve from 0.696 to 0.813 in the test set and from 0.712 to 0.848 in the validation set. A composite model integrating the 5-mRNA risk score and variables in the reference model demonstrated an excellent discrimination capability, with an area under the curve of 0.861 (95% CI, 0.784–0.939) in the test set and an area under the curve of 0.859 (95% CI, 0.755–0.963) in the validation set. The net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement indicated that the composite model significantly improved patient classification compared with the reference model in both sets ( P <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The 5-mRNA signature is a promising predictive tool for 1-year all-cause death and shows improved prognostic power over the established risk scores and NT-proBNP in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction.