Cost-Effectiveness of Statin Therapy for Primary Prevention in a Low-Cost Statin Era

Abstract

Background— With wide availability of low-cost generics, primary prevention with statins has become less expensive. We projected the cost-effectiveness of expanded statin prescribing strategies using low-cost generics and identified conditions under which aggressive prescribing ceases to be cost-effective. Methods and Results— We simulated expanded statin prescribing strategies with the coronary heart disease policy model, a Markov model of the US population ã35 years of age. If statins cost $4/mo, treatment thresholds of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ã160 mg/dL for low-risk persons (0 to 1 risk factor), ã130 mg/dL for moderate-risk persons (≥2 risk factors and 10-year risk <10%), and ã100 mg/dL for moderately high-risk persons (≥2 risk factors and 10-year risk ã10%) would reduce annual healthcare costs by $430 million compared with Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines. Lowering thresholds to ã130 mg/dL for persons with 0 risk factors and ã100 mg/dL for persons with 1 risk factor and treating all moderate- and moderately high-risk persons regardless of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol would provide additional health benefits for $9900 per quality-adjusted life-year. These findings are insensitive to most adverse effect assumptions (including statin-associated diabetes mellitus and severe hypothetical effects) but are sensitive to large reductions in the efficacy of statins or to a long-term disutility burden for which a patient would trade 30 to 80 days of life to avoid 30 years of statins. Conclusions— Low-cost statins are cost-effective for most persons with even modestly elevated cholesterol or any coronary heart disease risk factors if they do not mind taking a pill daily. Adverse effects are unlikely to outweigh benefits in any subgroup in which statins are found to be efficacious.