Prognosis of Systolic Pressure 130 to 139 According to Risk. A Prospective Cohort Study Between 1992 and 2019

Abstract

BACKGROUND: Guidelines recommend pharmacological treatment for systolic blood pressure (SBP) of 130 to 139 mm Hg in secondary prevention. However, uncertainty persists in primary prevention in low cardiovascular risk patients (CVR). METHODS: Cohort study representative of the general population of Albacete/Southeast Spain. We examined 1029 participants with untreated blood pressure and free of cardiovascular disease, followed-up during 1992 to 2019. Cox regression modeled the association of SBP with cardiovascular morbidity and mortality (outcome-1) and cardiovascular morbidity and all-cause mortality (outcome-2). RESULTS: Participants’ mean age was 44.8 years (53.8%, women; 77.1% at low-CVR); 20.3% had SBP 120 to 129; 13.0% 130 to 139 at low-CVR and 3.4% at high-CVR; and 27.4% ≥140 mm Hg. After a 25.7-year median follow-up, 218 outcome-1 and 302 outcome-2 cases occurred. Unadjusted hazard ratios of outcome-1 for these increasing SBP categories (versus <120) were 2.72, 2.27, 11.54, and 7.52, respectively; and 2.69, 2.32, 10.55, and 7.34 for outcome-2 (all P <0.01). After adjustment for other risk factors, hazard ratio (95% CI) of outcome-1 were 1.49 (0.91–2.44), 1.65 (0.94–2.91, P =0.08), 1.36 (0.72–2.57), and 1.82 (1.15–2.88), respectively, and 1.39 (0.91–2.11), 1.69 (1.05–2.73), 1.09 (0.63–1.88), and 1.64 (1.11–2.41) for outcome-2. Compared with 130 to 139 at low-CVR, hazard ratio for 130 to 139 at high-CVR was 4.85 for outcome-1 ( P <0.001) and 4.43 for outcome-2 ( P <0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this primary prevention population of relatively young average age, untreated SBP of 130 to 139 mm Hg at low-CVR had long-term prognostic value and might benefit from stricter SBP targets. High-CVR patients had nonsignificant higher risk (limited sample size) but 4-fold greater risk when compared with low-CVR. Overall, results indicate the importance of risk stratification, supporting risk-based decision-making.