Amino-Terminal Pro-B-Type Natriuretic Peptide Improves Discrimination for Incident Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Beyond Ambulatory Blood Pressure in Elderly Men

Abstract

Improvement of risk prediction for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is needed. Both ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) and biomarkers amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and cystatin C improve risk prediction but they have not been evaluated in relation to each other. We analyzed whether NT-proBNP, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, or cystatin C improved risk prediction beyond traditional ASCVD risk factors combined with 24-hour systolic BP (SBP). Secondary aim was to evaluate whether ABP improved risk prediction when compared with models with the biomarkers. We followed up 907 70-year-old men, free of baseline disease, for incident ASCVD defined as fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction or fatal or nonfatal stroke for a median of 10 years. Cox regression was used to estimate the association between variables in the models and incident ASCVD. Biomarkers were added to a model containing both traditional risk factors and ABP and the models were compared on C-statistics and net reclassification improvement. Twenty-four hour SBP improved discrimination for incident ASCVD when compared with office SBP in a traditional risk factor model (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, +2.4%). NT-proBNP further improved reclassification (+18.7%–19.9%; P <0.01) when added to ABP models, whereas high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and cystatin C did not. Twenty-four hour SBP significantly improved net reclassification when added to a traditional risk factor model that included NT-proBNP. The combination of 24-hour SBP and NT-proBNP improved discrimination and net reclassification for incident ASCVD when compared with office SBP in elderly men. NT-proBNP, but not high-sensitivity C-reactive protein or cystatin C, improved risk prediction and discrimination when added to a model that included ABP.