Temporal Trends in Incidence, Prevalence, and Mortality of Atrial Fibrillation in Primary Care

Abstract

Background Incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation ( AF ) are expected to increase dramatically; however, we currently lack comprehensive data on temporal trends in unselected clinical populations. Methods and Results Analysis of the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink ( CPRD ) from 1998 to 2010 of patients with incident AF , excluding major valvular disease, linked to hospital admission data and national statistics. Fifty‐seven thousand eight hundred eighteen adults were identified with mean age 74.2 ( SD , 11.7) years and 48.3% women. Overall age‐adjusted incidence of AF per 1000 person years was 1.11 (95% CI , 1.09–1.13) in 1998–2001, 1.33 (1.31–1.34) in 2002–2006, and 1.33 (1.31–1.35) in 2007–2010. Ongoing increases in incidence were noted for patients aged ≥75 years, with similar temporal patterns in women and men. Associated comorbidities varied over time, with a constant prevalence of previous stroke, increases in hypertension and diabetes mellitus, and decreases in ischemic heart disease. Among patients aged 55 to 74 years, there was a significant reduction in mortality over time ( P <0.001), but mortality rates in patients aged ≥75 years remained static at 14% to 15% per year ( P =0.84). Projections of AF prevalence demonstrated a constant yearly rise, increasing from 700 000 patients in 2010 to between 1.3 and 1.8 million patients with AF in the United Kingdom by 2060. Conclusions In a large general practice population, incident AF increased and then plateaued overall, with a continued increase in patients aged ≥75 years. The large projected increase in AF prevalence associated with temporal changes in AF ‐related comorbidities suggests the need for comprehensive implementation of AF prevention and management strategies.