Derivation and Validation of a Novel Cardiac Intensive Care Unit Admission Risk Score for Mortality

Abstract

Background There are no risk scores designed specifically for mortality risk prediction in unselected cardiac intensive care unit ( CICU ) patients. We sought to develop a novel CICU ‐specific risk score for prediction of hospital mortality using variables available at the time of CICU admission. Methods and Results A database of CICU patients admitted from January 1, 2007 to April 30, 2018 was divided into derivation and validation cohorts. The top 7 predictors of hospital mortality were identified using stepwise backward regression, then used to develop the Mayo CICU Admission Risk Score (M‐ CARS ), with integer scores ranging from 0 to 10. Discrimination was assessed using area under the receiver‐operator curve analysis. Calibration was assessed using the Hosmer–Lemeshow statistic. The derivation cohort included 10 004 patients and the validation cohort included 2634 patients (mean age 67.6 years, 37.7% females). Hospital mortality was 9.2%. Predictor variables included in the M‐ CARS were cardiac arrest, shock, respiratory failure, Braden skin score, blood urea nitrogen, anion gap and red blood cell distribution width at the time of CICU admission. The M‐ CARS showed a graded relationship with hospital mortality (odds ratio 1.84 for each 1‐point increase in M‐ CARS , 95% CI 1.78–1.89). In the validation cohort, the M‐ CARS had an area under the receiver‐operator curve of 0.86 for hospital mortality, with good calibration ( P =0.21). The 47.1% of patients with M‐ CARS <2 had hospital mortality of 0.8%, and the 5.2% of patients with M‐ CARS >6 had hospital mortality of 51.6%. Conclusions Using 7 variables available at the time of CICU admission, the M‐ CARS can predict hospital mortality in unselected CICU patients with excellent discrimination.