Lifetime Risk of Lower‐Extremity Peripheral Artery Disease Defined by Ankle‐Brachial Index in the United States

Abstract

Background There are no available lifetime risk estimates of lower‐extremity peripheral artery disease ( PAD ). Methods and Results Using data from 6 US community‐based cohorts and the vital statistics, we estimated the prevalence and incidence of PAD , defined as an ankle‐brachial index < 0.90, at each year of age from birth to 80 years for white, black, and Hispanic men and women. Then, we used Markov Monte Carlo simulations in a simulated cohort of 100 000 individuals to estimate lifetime risk of PAD . On the basis of odds ratios of PAD for traditional atherosclerotic risk factors (eg, diabetes mellitus and smoking), we developed a calculator providing residual lifetime risk of PAD . In an 80‐year horizon, lifetime risks of PAD were 30.0% in black men and 27.6% in black women, but ≈19% in white men and women and ≈22% in Hispanic men and women. From another perspective, 9% of blacks were estimated to develop PAD by 60 years of age, while the same proportion was seen at ≈70 years for whites and Hispanics. The residual lifetime risk within the same race/ethnicity varied by 3.5‐ to 5‐fold according to risk factors (eg, residual lifetime risk in 45‐year‐old black men was 19.9% when current smoking, diabetes mellitus, and history of cardiovascular disease were absent versus 70.4% when all were present). Conclusions In the United States, ≈30% of blacks are estimated to develop PAD during their lifetime, whereas the corresponding estimate is ≈20% for whites and Hispanics. The residual lifetime risk within the same race/ethnicity substantially varies according to traditional risk factors.