Modeling Pathways From the Perinatal Factors to the Vascular Risk Phenotype at the End of the Second Decade of Life

Abstract

Risk factors act around birth increasing future vascular risk. In this study, we analysed the pathways from perinatal factors to the vascular risk phenotype (VRP) in adolescents including indirect pathways mediated by obesity in adolescence. Data from a Brazilian cohort were collected at birth and at 18 to 19 years (follow-up). A theoretical model was constructed to analyze the association between variables at birth (socioeconomic status, prepregnancy body mass index, mother’s age, history of maternal hypertension, maternal smoking, gestational age at birth, birth weight, sex, delivery type) and at follow-up (smoking and excess weight) with the VRP, using structural equation modeling. VRP was a continuous latent variable, representing the shared variance of blood pressure indictors and carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity. Males had higher VRP (standardized coefficient [SC], 0.561; P< 0.001). Higher prepregnancy body mass index was associated with higher VRP (SC, 0.140; P =0.032). Gestational age <34 weeks had a total (SC, 0.259; P =0.002) and direct effect (SC, 0.354; P =0.018) on VRP. Cesarean delivery had a total effect, albeit borderline, on VRP (SC, 0.159; P =0.066). Excess weight at follow-up was the main determinant of a high VRP (SC, 0.470; P< 0.001). Male sex, cesarean section, gestational age <34 weeks, pregestational excess weight, and excess weight in adolescents were associated with increased VRP at 18 to 19 years of age.