Dynamic TIMI Risk Score for STEMI

Abstract

Background Although there are multiple methods of risk stratification for ST ‐elevation myocardial infarction ( STEMI ), this study presents a prospectively validated method for reclassification of patients based on in‐hospital events. A dynamic risk score provides an initial risk stratification and reassessment at discharge. Methods and Results The dynamic TIMI risk score for STEMI was derived in ExTRACT‐ TIMI 25 and validated in TRITON ‐ TIMI 38. Baseline variables were from the original TIMI risk score for STEMI . New variables were major clinical events occurring during the index hospitalization. Each variable was tested individually in a univariate C ox proportional hazards regression. Variables with P <0.05 were incorporated into a full multivariable C ox model to assess the risk of death at 1 year. Each variable was assigned an integer value based on the odds ratio, and the final score was the sum of these values. The dynamic score included the development of in‐hospital MI , arrhythmia, major bleed, stroke, congestive heart failure, recurrent ischemia, and renal failure. The C ‐statistic produced by the dynamic score in the derivation database was 0.76, with a net reclassification improvement ( NRI ) of 0.33 ( P <0.0001) from the inclusion of dynamic events to the original TIMI risk score. In the validation database, the C ‐statistic was 0.81, with a NRI of 0.35 ( P =0.01). Conclusions This score is a prospectively derived, validated means of estimating 1‐year mortality of STEMI at hospital discharge and can serve as a clinically useful tool. By incorporating events during the index hospitalization, it can better define risk and help to guide treatment decisions.