Evaluating the Coronary Artery Disease Consortium Model and the Coronary Artery Calcium Score in Predicting Obstructive Coronary Artery Disease in a Symptomatic Mixed Asian Cohort

Abstract

Background The utility of a given pretest probability score in predicting obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) is population dependent. Previous studies investigating the additive value of coronary artery calcium (CAC) on pretest probability scores were predominantly limited to Western populations. This retrospective study seeks to evaluate the CAD Consortium (CAD2) model in a mixed Asian cohort within Singapore with stable chest pain and to evaluate the incremental value of CAC in predicting obstructive CAD. Methods and Results Patients who underwent cardiac computed tomography and had chest pain were included. The CAD2 clinical model comprised of age, sex, symptom typicality, diabetes, hypertension, hyperlipidemia, and smoking status and was compared with the CAD2 extended model that added CAC to assess the incremental value of CAC scoring, as well as to the corresponding locally calibrated local assessment of the heart models. A total of 522 patients were analyzed (mean age 54±11 years, 43.1% female). The CAD2 clinical model obtained an area under the curve of 0.718 (95% CI, 0.668–0.767). The inclusion of CAC score improved the area under the curve to 0.896 (95% CI, 0.867–0.925) in the CAD2 models and from 0.767 (95% CI, 0.721–0.814) to 0.926 (95% CI, 0.900–0.951) in the local assessment of the heart models. The locally calibrated local assessment of the heart models showed better discriminative performance than the corresponding CAD2 models ( P <0.05 for all). Conclusions The CAD2 model was validated in a symptomatic mixed Asian cohort and local calibration further improved performance. CAC scoring provided significant incremental value in predicting obstructive CAD.