Statistical Modelling of Home Advantage and Away Disadvantage of Turkish Super League Teams

Abstract

It is a fact that for all sports branches, being home or away is one of the most critical factors influencing the outcome of the game. Although there are many studies on Home Advantage (HA), most of these studies have been made specifically for leagues as a whole, and the number of studies examining HA at the team level is quite limited. In this study, the HA and away disadvantage (AD) values were calculated, using Poisson regression, for each team played at least 3 seasons in the Turkish Super League between 2000/2001 and 2021/2022 seasons, based on the goals they scored and conceded in their home and away matches. According to the results of the study, 32 of the 34 teams included in the analysis were found to have a home advantage that statistically varied between 56.2% and 81.8%. Evaluations using AD determined that AD values ranged between 46.7% and 65.4% and only 9 teams did not have an away disadvantage in the league. However, the results of the study indicated that the main factor determining the ranking in the league is the away disadvantage of the teams. The reason why the teams have different HA and AD values can be shown as the effect of the spectators, and different game tactics applied in home and away matches.