MACROECONOMIC SHIFTS IN THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY DURING THE PERIOD OF ECONOMIC SANCTIONS

Abstract

The strategic objectives of the development of the national economy in the modern period are analyzed. An attempt is made to assess the degree of achievement of national goals using the tools of macroeconomic analysis: input-output tables for 2016-2019. Among the branches of the economy (types of activities), the branches of material production are highlighted: agriculture, processing industries, extractive industries, electric power and construction, as well as the types of products created by these industries (types of activities). The amounts of the share of intermediate consumption, value added, imports, trade and transport margins and exports of these industries in gross output are determined. The analysis of structural and dynamic changes in macroeconomic proportions showed clear positive shifts in the Russian economy: the share of value added in the branches of material production increased, the share of exports in almost all types of products increased, the share of the import component in output decreased, the share of trade and transport margins in the leading sectors of the economy decreased, the structure of trade and transport margins improved. It should be noted that there have been no cardinal positive changes in the structure of the economy, the effect of import substitution has not yet worked in full force. The most significant changes are predicted by the end of 2022, when we expect a noticeable decrease in the share of imports, an increase in capital accumulation, an increase in intermediate consumption in industries due to the development of new "import-substituting" industries and, finally, an increase in value added.