Candidate Ideology and Vote Choice in the 2020 US Presidential Election

Author:

Broockman David,Kalla JoshuaORCID

Abstract

A prominent literature argues that moderate candidates perform better in general elections, but a competing literature that emphasizes voters’ partisan loyalties contests these predictions. The 2020 Democratic Presidential primary represented an opportunity to speak to these debates due to relatively high voter information about multiple moderate and extreme candidates running in the same election. We present results from both an existing (n = 62,275) and an original (n = 12,725) national survey that asked how respondents would choose in a general election between one of the Democratic candidates and Republican Donald Trump. Our evidence is consistent with moderates having an electoral advantage: more moderate Democratic candidates receive more support against Trump than do more extreme Democratic candidates. Republican partisans contribute to Democratic moderates’ advantage: ≈2% select Trump against a more extreme Democrat but not against a more moderate Democrat. One of the more extreme candidates, Bernie Sanders, ostensibly deviates from this pattern, but only under unlikely assumptions about turnout. Our point estimates are larger than Biden’s margin of victory in pivotal states in the 2020 general election. Our findings lend further support to the hypothesis that moderate candidates are electorally advantaged.

Publisher

Center for Open Science

Cited by 3 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3