Transport and Energy Demand in the Developing World: The Urgent Alternatives

Abstract

The appeal of individual mobility provided today by automobiles and light trucks with internal combustion engines, makes transportation the sector most resilient to a fuel substitution away from its dependence on oil. While the number of vehicles per capita and the distance traveled per vehicle are approaching saturation levels in the industrialized countries (IEA 2002), increases in population and income per capita, economic reforms and industry globalization can result in an off-trend accelerated growth of vehicles in the economies in transition (FSU and EE) and in the developing world (China, India and Latin America, mainly). The corresponding world road use energy consumption could reach a 200 percent increase from present levels by the year 2020, instead of an already worrisome “business as usual” projection of 75 percent (BAUER 2003, 2004). This paper analyses the mitigation effect on world oil demand and on its environmental impact that a policy of leapfrogging towards energy efficient internal combustion technologies and/or alternative vehicles – hybrid or fully electric – could have.