Sidetrack and Recompletion Risks in Oil Fields. VI. Decisions to Abandon Based on Further Data Collection

Abstract

Based upon the premise that an accurately targeted decision to proceed or not with a recompletion or sidetrack job in an oil field may not be possible without further information, this paper investigates what worth is brought to resolving such decision uncertainty by acquiring new data, and relates the cost of such data to changes the data bring about in the worth of going ahead with a development job. Limitations to the costs of such data, and of undertaking further studies should the acquired data not resolve the situation, are examined in relation to the estimated worth of the development project and also to the probability that a successful profitable outcome for the development project will prevail. Given the uncertainties on such future estimates, an investigation is also given of the dominance of individual uncertain factors in contributing to the uncertainty of turning a profit. Five examples are given, designed to illuminate how the costs and uncertainties influence, sometimes very seriously, prior estimates of likely worth of the development project. Detailed considerations show which of the costs and uncertainties need to be lowered or better constrained if such a project is to be undertaken rather than abandoned because of the excessive costs involved that convert a very worthwhile project into one that can only lose even more money for a corporation.